China’s new laser space weapons                  alarms the US: India's Concerns

 

The Real Threat 

It's important to note that the militarization of space is a contentious issue, with international treaties such as the Outer Space Treaty aiming to prevent the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space. However, the interpretation of such treaties and the development of non-WMD space weapons remain areas of debate and concern among the international community.

 China’s Space Growth is Predominantly linked to the Military Benefit First  

• China is the only country in the world, whose space department is functioning directly under the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Obviously, this has always ensured that Space assets give military spin-offs at the very inception stage of any project. China’s space programme, like its’ nuclear programme, expanded from military to civil uses. China built up its space launch capabilities on the foundations of Its Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMS) and the technology to improve their performance from the United States. Similarly, China’s manned space flight, therefore, must be seen in the context of integrated civil-military benefits. In addition, it appears to satisfy China’s central concept of comprehensive national power to compliment emergence of China as a global power. It also legitimizes the rule of the Communist party of China (CPC) in achieving milestones in Space. President Xi Jinping has also thrown his support behind the country’s space endeavors and the Chinese state media regularly cast the “space dream” as one step in the path to “national rejuvenation”.
• Since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, there has been greater focus on overall military capabilities and the PLA has devoted more attention to space and information capabilities. The last Chinese Defense White Paper (2019) identified space as “a critical domain of international strategic competition.” The 2019 White Paper also identified the important role that space will play in “improve [Ing] the capabilities of joint operations command to exercise reliable and efficient command over emergency responses, and to effectively accomplish urgent, tough and dangerous tasks.”
• With the goal of becoming a “world-class military power,” by 2027, as reiterated by President Xi Jinping in the recent Plenary session of the CPC. China has gone about advancing its space power, both in terms of institutional reorganization and development of space and counter space capabilities. The military modernization through better Fractionalization so undertaken by China since 2015 is worth noting. It has notably speeded up the Space launches. A particular event in space becomes useful only if it is followed up by creating an infrastructure so as to achieve both military and civil spin-offs. In terms of institutional architecture, the most significant development is the creation of the PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), a theatre command-level organization designed to combine “the PLA’s strategic space, cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare missions and capabilities.”  The PLASSF is an infrastructural organization to create synergies in functions that were previously dispersed across a number of departments. Under the aegis of military reforms, the PLASSF is directly under the Central Military Commission and is responsible for centralized support to the PLA. The aim as given in the ibid White paper was “seeking to achieve big development strides in key areas and accelerate the integrated development of new-type combat forces, so as to build a strong and modernized strategic support force.”. All the issues of joint support ultimately get linked to the ‘Space Dominant’ capabilities, which get generated by executing planned launches rapidly so as to create the necessary infrastructure as elucidated below.

Laser weapon in space

• To enable the above networked infrastructure, China has been conducting extensive space launches in 2018 and 2019.In 2020, in spite of the Pandemic; it carried out 34 launches (out of a planned 40) which are more than any other country. Recently they sent a mission to the Far side of the Moon. Yet again on 1 December 2020, China landed Change’s 5 Moon lander on the moon to bring home some moon rock as souvenirs and  I also completed the network of satellites for its BeiDou navigation system, as an alternative to the US GPS system. China is also working toward sending astronauts to the Moon and, eventually, Mars. It has also recently launched a re-usable ‘Space Plane’. This is a big step forward in China’s space technology as winged re-entry is really hard to do. 

China’s “Relativistic Klystron Amplifier (RKA)”                                    

• Researchers in China have developed a microwave machine “Relativistic Klystron Amplifier (RKA)”, that could jam or destroy satellites in space.

The device can generate a wave burst measuring 5-megawatts in the Ka-band, a portion of the electromagnetic spectrum increasingly used for both civil and military purposes. Although China denies the RKA is a Directed Energy Weapon (DEW), if the system were built at scale, it could send beams strong enough to rip through metallic materials moving at speed. Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) are systems that use concentrated electromagnetic energy rather than kinetic energy to damage or destroy enemy equipment and/or personnel in a physical conflict.

China’s new hypersonic arsenal

China’s new hypersonic arsenal includes the DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle that has a range of 1,600 kilometers. It also has the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, which also carries a hypersonic glide vehicle. 

The US Response: Pentagon rattled by Chinese expanding arsenal on multiple fronts

• The US is alarmed and Pentagon intends to deal with the China challenge in the coming weeks from a holistic policy review on nuclear weapons, global troop basing and overall defense strategy. For now, officials are aghast at how Beijing is marshaling the resources, technology and political will to make rapid gains in space which is emerging as the new geo-political High Ground. The Biden administration is attempting to reorient all aspects of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Even NATO is being given a supplementary mission to look more towards the Indo-Pacific and they are even now establishing a NATO Space Command Center.

The US secret new space weapon: Yet to be declassified

In addition the US has recently declared that very soon, it will make its secret new space weapon public. The unveiling will be a warning to other military space powers.

India’s Options

India’s DRDO Has Displayed A-SAT weapon system. This should provide some Space Deterrence against China 

• China’s growing comprehensive space power impacts on India, the most. India therefore, has no other option but to match these capabilities. However, due to a lower economic capacity, India cannot afford the same level of space activities. The answer therefore lies in India trying to create a minimum deterrence in, by India creating its own space and counter-space capabilities as a punitive measure. This could be enabled, by India acquiring niche technologies of ASAT and other non-Kinetic systems in outer space. India is already on the path of acquiring cutting edge technologies in this domain. The tri-Service integrated defence staffs (IDS) under the defence ministry have already conducted a two-day “IndSpaceEx”, with all military and scientific stakeholders in 2019. India also successfully tested an anti-satellite (A-Sat) interceptor missile to destroy the 740-kg Microsat-R satellite, at an altitude of 283-km in the low earth orbit (LEO), in a “hit-to-kill mode” under “Mission Shakti” few years back. (See photo above). Also, an Indian Tri-services Defence Space Agency is in the making before the formation of a full -fledged Space Command which is envisaged to be raised by 2025-2027.
• In addition, like the QUAD, India has to knit a coalition and partnership with likeminded nations or even explore the recent NATO ‘Open Door policy for India.’ India should also exploit the Indo-US Strategic Partnership, especially the operationalisation of ‘BECA’ etc., for maintaining an ‘Information Domination’ edge over China through a real time ‘OODA’ loop. For example, the creation of this enhanced ‘Situational Awareness’ advantage in Ladakh during the present India-China standoff really gets converted into a combat stalemate, in spite of the asymmetry between the two nations. China’s investments in Space have almost been five times more over India since the last 20 years. But because of these geostrategic partnerships at no financial costs, India is able to match the opponent and create a comprehensive deterrence against China. The credit goes to India’s smart geopolitical posturing. India’s space strategy should be to harness the available niche technologies of the U.S. and maximise closer space assets linkages rather than re-invent the systems. Towards this, the recent establishment of a ‘Situational Awareness Centre’ at Bangalore is a great milestone in management of Real time Information and its military application. This can offset China’s space superiority.
• India should also be made a partner in the existing International European Space Station. Or otherwise, India should lead by forming an Asian Space station with the help of Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Israel and even others. These kind of similar initiatives in space are urgently required to enable India in check mating China from a free run-in bull-dozing their way and seizing geopolitical and geostrategic High Grounds in Space. The Space environment will have a cascading effect on the geographical earth surface towards sovereignty and protecting the land territories of smaller nations.

 

India-China war: Can India tame technologies and nuclear strategies to enhance deterrence?

• Russia’s Ukraine offensive has more or less petered out and is now looking more like a ‘Technology-Attrition-War” (TAW). The war has prolonged much beyond expectation because Ukraine has been supported by the many states of art weapon systems from the west. The net result as on date is that the latest military technologies, both of the west and Russia have been tested and validated. But both Kiev and Bakhmuth stand free as on today. Russian conventional offensive has been done in a very friendly terrain, which lends itself to armor operations. Nevertheless this, the Russians see themselves as helpless in winning a decisive victory in spite of using revolutionary strategies and new weapons, including the hypersonic missiles. This has forced Putin to aptly play the card of nuclear weapons to deny and restrict outside intervention like that of NATO. He has all along played a quasi ‘Conventional-Nuclear Strategy’ to threaten the risk of further escalation ladder and has even threatened to abandon arms control treaties. The war is in a dangerous phase as the Bakhmuth battle continues to rage.
• Now comparing this situation in the India-China conflict scenario, the primary aspect which needs to be understood is the difference in the topography in the two war zones and the state of the military combat powers.
• If one compares the terrain as obtained along the LAC and that in Ukraine, then the stark reality stands out. Because the LAC is at 12000 feet and above heights where the rugged mountains impede mobility especially of armor. Whereas most of Ukraine is flat, with mountains found only in the west (the Carpathians) or in the south of the Crimean Peninsula (the Crimeans). The country has fertile plains, called steppes, which lend themselves to swift armor and drone operations. Now looking at the comparative combat power between the warring nations, the discussion below makes it an apt situation were running over of Indian defenses would be at a very heavy cost to the PLA and probably impossible. Let us wargame the same.

(a) There is a lot to compare here – attack aircraft, armored vehicles, surface-to-air missiles – but in general, Russia simply has more of everything. Russia has more than 15,857 armored fighting vehicles, for example, to Ukraine’s 3,309. In terms of active-duty personnel, Russia is the world’s fifth-largest military force, with 1.15 million and at least two million reserve personnel. However, Ukraine ranks 15th among world’s strongest armies in the Global Firepower index. In the 2022 ranking, actually Ukraine took only 22nd place.

(b) Whereas in the India-China context the factual situation is entirely different. The Largest Armies in the World Include China-India-The United States-North Korea-Russia in decreasing order.

(c) Looking at combat ratios between India and China, when China is in an offensive role requiring at least three times more strength. Whereas actual combat ratios of the fighting elements on the LAC are almost equal. After reorganization and downsizing of the PLA, there are approximately 70 combat divisions out of which many have been regrouped into Brigade sizes. Out of this even if half the strength of PLA is deployed in their Western Theatre it will fall short of the desired combat differential. Whereas India has the capacity to hold the Eastern front with more than 20 divisions and has also built the capability for a counter-offensive with almost two strike corps after minor adjustment of posturing from the western front (Pakistan).

• With near parity existing between the two conventional Force Levels as deployed on the Himalayas has already caused, a strategic stalemate all along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in spite of China’s military superiority. The quantum of Fire Power, which China can generate is also clearly superior. In addition, the PLA will also enjoy the benefit of the ‘First Mover’.
•  Nevertheless, all the above, yet no major breakthrough can actually result even if the PLA employs a ‘Strategy of an Active or an Offensive-Defense’ posture. Because, even if the PLA inducts an additional Army Group from the Southern/Eastern Theatre, it cannot speed up operations at these High-Altitude Heights and the treacherous undulating terrain, which negate most of PLA’S strength demanding very high combat ratios (Normally 1:6). Further, the battle of attrition along the various tiers of Indian defenses makes the defenses impregnable. Further, the PLA has already got a taste of the professionalism and determination of Indian soldiers and would not like to confront them at all. On the other hand, it will be very embarrassing for the PLA when the sturdy Indian Mountain warriors do a counter-riposte with the help of the Strike Corps and Special Forces to outmaneuver and rebuke the enemy to call off their bluff. Ipso-facto, whatever the Chinese may try, psychologically they are geared only for a gray-zone type of warfare operating not only below the’ Nuclear Threshold’ but also below the escalatory ladder of a full throttled conventional battle. This means that India’s new strategy of strategic deterrence as against the earlier ’Dissuasive Deterrence’ is paying-off. (Creation of the 17 Corps has raised this level of deterrence). In the present scenario, if at all somebody attacks, it will be China’s proxy-Pakistan. Now looking with more focus to the India-China confrontation, it clearly stands that today, China’s ‘Operational Strategy’ is more centered towards its West for projection, may be towards Central Asia and the Indian Ocean.
• Yet another important difference to the Ukraine war is that India is a nuclear power with almost 180 war heads in the arsenal. Let us see, how we can make it more potent. Can India upgrade its Nuclear Strategy to draw linkages and create thresholds for ground operational doctrines? Can the TRIAD be made more robust? Can the Second-strike philosophy be given enough redundancy to enable a residual strike, which should be sufficient to cause irreparable loss to the aggressor.? Can we theoretically talk of a first strike and management of its consequences.? Is there a need to create tiers of strategic targets to enable maximum options? How do we upgrade the near success of our nuclear strikes by adequate weapons and hypersonic missiles? These are moot questions and one is sure that they are work in progress as our fundamental nuclear strategy is dynamic, flexible and robust. 
• Latest acquisitions have added a new dimension of range and precession to Indian defenses. To name a few like IAF’s formidable “Tigersharks” squadron consisting the super-lethal Su-30MKI- INS Vikrant, BrahMos Missile, Indian Air Force (IAF), Indian Defense, Pralay Missile, swarm drones, INS Mormugao, Indian Weapon Systems, LCH Prachand, BrahMos-A weapon-platform combination has become India’s most powerful strategic asset to undertake modern operations from large, stand-off range. India is planning projects in defense and aerospace for building next-generation military equipment, which include procuring next-generation submarines and fighter jets. Some mega projects such as P75I submarines, Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) for fifth-generation fighter jets, Tejas MK2 Multirole Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), and light tank ‘Zorawar’ are in the pipeline.  India and the US are exploring the possibility of jointly developing and manufacturing a variant of the M777 ultra lightweight howitzer with an extended range, of 150 kms. This again would be a game changer along the LAC. An Indian company has delivered SWARM drones to Indian Army, which makes the Army the first major armed force in the world to operationalize these high-density SWARM drones. These state-of-the-art weapons systems when integrated in the battlefield will enable Indian defense Forces to deliver a knock out punch to any ingress coupled with the synergization of various assets as provided by friendly nations.
• In summation therefore, China/ PLA are not militarily capable of seizing Indian ground, which is an entirely different story when compared to the Ukraine conflict, which actually is a one-sided war sustained only by the efforts of the west. Obviously, a PLA offensive into India will also generate enough good will for India and the multiple joint exercises which India has done with strategic partners will repel any attack in spite of China having the first mover advantage.
• Lastly, India’s counter-riposte capabilities, which have already been displayed in the ongoing LAC conflict (Capture of South Pangong Tso Heights) will make PLA recoil or they may even lose some territory on their side when they face seasoned and well-motivated soldiers protecting their motherland.
• India is therefore well on the way to tame technologies and strengthen its nuclear TRIAD to have increased the deterrence to war, much beyond the expectations.